You could be focusing on the wrong influences on the New Zealand exchange rate, says  Halo Financial Director David Johnson. 

So you’re standing on the kerbside waiting to cross the road. You are doing your Green Cross Code bit and looking to your right for traffic until then you realise everyone else is looking left. Then it dawns on you that you are in a country that drives on the wrong side of the road and the other pedestrians have got it right. You are suddenly thankful that someone knew what was going on and you manage to cross the road safely.

It is easy to apply that same situation to the current state of affairs with the New Zealand Dollar; you may be concentrating on the New Zealand and UK economies looking for clues as to the direction of the Sterling – New Zealand Dollar exchange rate movement; but those "in the know" are looking in a completely different direction ... and they have got it right.

Where they are looking is towards China and America. That is probably making them a tad cross-eyed but they are watching China because the Chinese economy is currently the most influential force acting on commodity prices and because New Zealand’s exports are largely commodity based. And they are watching America because the stuttering state of America’s "recovery" from recession is causing nervousness across the globe and until more confidence returns the NZ Dollar is likely to remain incredibly volatile.

They should also be keeping a wary eye on the UK economy as well. Whilst the new government has been applauded for making a robust start to cutting UK borrowing and spending in order to reduce the public sector debt burden, there are fears that they may be making slightly larger strides than might be prudent in these fragile times. Fears that the credit ratings agencies may start to remove Britain’s coveted AAA credit rating are rife; driven by constantly updated forecasts of slowing economic growth and the data showing that without government stimulus Britain would still be in recession, caused a tremor across the Sterling trading markets.

Where to from here?

So which way should we be looking really? Well I would suggest you look to enlisting the assistance of someone to do your invigilating for you. Someone who has a constant eye on the markets, someone who can explain the current influences and sentiment, someone who has suggestions for the right strategy to adopt in your particular circumstance and someone who can and will save you money on your currency exchange.

I know I may be biased but that someone is actually a group of people called Halo Financial. Halo Financial’s consultants all have the experience, the background, the access to relevant market information and the customer service ethic to ensure you get the kind of service that, in these days of call centres and automated operators, you probably thought was consigned to the past.

So if you are standing at the kerbside of migration to New Zealand, before you step off the kerb, just check which way Halo Financial’s currency consultants are looking before you leap into the dark. It could make the difference between arriving in New Zealand with more money than you imagined and pouring your money down the gutter because the markets moved while you were looking the other way.

- Halo Financial is a leading specialist provider of commercial foreign exchange services for both international business and private individuals who require foreign currency and need expert assistance in successfully managing their foreign exchange exposures. They are a partner of New Zealand Visa Bureau, an independent company specialising in helping applicants emigrate to New Zealand.

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